NFL Week 14 Power Rankings: Only Four Teams Still Deserve a Bye
Week 13 detonated the playoff picture - Rams stunned by Panthers, Bears seizing the NFC’s No. 1 seed, Steelers collapsing on Monday night, and rookie quarterbacks suddenly steering destinies. With four games remaining for most teams, the first-round bye has become the rarest currency in football. These rankings name the only four franchises that have truly earned a January vacation and explain why everyone else is still scrambling for scraps.
- Krishna Sagar
- 4 min read
December football is supposed to separate contenders from pretenders, but Week 13 turned the league upside down.
New England and Seattle have spent the season quietly stacking wins and tiebreakers. Chicago announced itself as a legitimate superpower by humiliating Philadelphia on Black Friday.
Denver, behind a rookie quarterback and a suffocating defense, has won ten games while barely anyone noticed. The rest of the league is either slipping (Chiefs, Eagles, Rams) or clinging to wild-card life support (Bills, Ravens, Packers).
Here are the only four teams that have legitimately earned the right to a first-round bye, ranked by résumé, remaining schedule, and proven clutch factor.
1. New England Patriots (11-2) and Seattle Seahawks (10-2)
Drake Maye has thrown for 3,130 yards and 21 touchdowns with a league-best 72% completion rate over the last six weeks. The defense ranks fourth in EPA per play at minus-0.18 and has forced 18 turnovers during a nine-game winning streak.
New England owns the head-to-head over Buffalo and gets a Week 14 bye before closing with the Bills again in Week 18. The math is simple: one more win locks the AFC’s top seed and home field throughout the playoffs. No team in football is playing cleaner football right now.2.
Geno Smith sits top-five in QBR, Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in yards after catch, and the defense allows the third-fewest points in the league at 17.3 per game. Seattle has already beaten the Rams twice and holds every meaningful conference tiebreaker in the NFC West.
Only one remaining opponent currently has a winning record (Minnesota in Week 14). The Seahawks are not flashy, but they are the most complete team in the NFC and the clearest path to the conference’s No. 1 seed outside of Chicago’s current tiebreaker edge.
2. Chicago Bears (9-3) and Denver Broncos (10-3)
The Bears woke up Monday morning owning the NFC’s No. 1 seed after their 24-15 demolition of Philadelphia and the Rams’ inexplicable loss to Carolina. Caleb Williams has thrown for 2,800 yards and 18 touchdowns while the defense leads the league with a plus-16 turnover margin.
Chicago has already beaten the Eagles, Lions, and Packers once each this season. A victory at Lambeau in the Week 14 flex would give them the head-to-head sweep over Green Bay and make the bye nearly automatic. The schedule softens after that. The Bears are no longer a cute story; they are the team nobody wants to play in January.
Bo Nix has six game-winning drives, the defense leads the league with 38 sacks, and the run game is averaging 5.1 yards per carry behind a revitalized offensive line. Denver still controls its own bye destiny: beat the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 14 and the path is wide open. Lose and the door cracks for Buffalo or Baltimore.
The Broncos have won nine of their last ten and are the only team outside the top three that can still realistically finish with the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Sean Payton finally has his quarterback, and the league is starting to notice.
3. The Rest of the Contenders (5-12)
- Los Angeles Rams (9-3) – A home loss to the 4-9 Panthers ended any realistic bye conversation.
- Baltimore Ravens (8-4) – Lamar Jackson is the MVP front-runner, but the secondary has regressed badly.
- Buffalo Bills (8-5) – Josh Allen’s heroics keep them alive, but the defense is middle-of-the-pack.
- Philadelphia Eagles (10-3) – Black Friday exposed cracks that Saquon Barkley can’t paper over forever.
- Detroit Lions (9-4) – Best offense in football, bottom-ten defense. Bye is a long shot.
- Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) – Five turnovers in the last three games. The dynasty is wobbling.
- Green Bay Packers (8-5) – Jordan Love is electric, but the run defense disappears too often.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) – Monday night’s collapse against Buffalo may have ended their season.
The Wild-Card Mess (13-32)
Everyone else is playing for the final three spots in each conference or drafting in the top ten. The gap between the legitimate bye contenders and the rest of the league has rarely been this stark at this point in the season.
Only the Patriots, Seahawks, Bears, and Broncos have separated themselves from the pack. The next four weeks will determine whether they hold serve or whether December delivers one final plot twist. Either way, the four teams at the top have earned the right to dream about a week off in January. The other twenty-eight are still fighting for the privilege to keep playing.